Think about the future in unconventional ways
|Purpose : Find future drivers of change and create scenarios
Application: Business, political and personal fields
>>>Method 1: Determine market drivers, innovation opportunities and key-uncertainties
Players: 2 to 8 | Duration: 30 – 90 minutes | Level: 3 (out of 5)
Last update: 11/27/2012
- Create an impact diagram with sections: “Confirmation”, “Innovation” and “Scenarios” on a large piece of paper.
- Make teams of two or three people.
- Shuffle the cards among the teams evenly. You might like to make a pre-selection of cards if you’re short on time.
- Each team should position their cards in the appropriate sections on the impact diagram.
- Discuss, as a team, which pattern of change is applicable to each of the cards. Write them down on separate pieces of papers and place them next to the cards. You should have now agreed on one pattern of change for each card on the table that gives you a complete overview of the current situation.
- Once all the cards are positioned, group the cards into categories. Assign a new pattern of change to the categories that is based upon the individual cards within that category. The category and the the main pattern of change combined can be defined as a driving force.
- By now you should have identified the market drives, innovation opportunities and key uncertainties.
- As a whole group discuss how these drivers influence your business. Three suggested discussion points could be:
- conformation – How do these drivers of change correspond with the current market? Is your company currently benefiting from those issues?
- innovation – Which business opportunities arise out of the drivers of change? Is your company currently addressing those issues?
- scenarios – Which future scenarios can you derive from the drivers of change? Is your company currently aware of those scenarios?
- During step 4: after you have positioned the STEEP cards add forces from the meso- (transactional) environment.
>>>Method 2: Identify key-uncertainties for scenario planning
Players: 2 to 8 | Duration: 30 – 90 minutes |Level: 4 (out of 5)
This workshop is included in the deck of cards and is also available in Dutch, German and Spanish.
Last update: 11/27/2012
- Select the cards that are relevant to the business case.
- Shuffle the cards and deal them among the players.
- In turns a player places a card on the impact diagram. The player names the pattern of change and explains why he put the card there.
- After each player’s turn, check whether the cards on the impact diagram need to be re-positioned as a result of the discussion.
- When all cards have been played, identify together the key-uncertainties that were used to create future scenarios.
- After positioning the STEEP cards add additional market forces of your own choice tat are relevant to the market.